May 2007

Global Weather Predictions

These are some Global Weather Predictions:

1. The Antarctic ice melt is a “canary in the coal mine” demonstrating dramatic global warming. However, more than 90 percent of Antarctica is getting colder and the Antarctic ice sheet as a whole is growing. However, the IPCC forecasts no net ice loss in Antarctica for the next century.
2. The Gulf Stream is likely to shut down, plunging the world into a renewed ice age. Climate scientists have seen no signs of this being realistic.
3. The alpine glacier atop Mt. Kilimanjaro is melting and global warming is to blame. However, it has been documented that a decrease in mountaintop precipitation, linked to deforestation at the base of the mountain is the cause of the receding glacier. The temperatures in the Kilimanjaro region have been declining rather than increasing.
4. The Sahara Desert southern section is expanding. However, it is reported that vegetation is reclaiming large barren expanses.
5. Himalayan glaciers are rapidly melting, threatening the water supply for millions of people. However, it is reported that Himalayan glaciers are as large as ever.
6. The Greenland ice sheet is disintegrating and will cause massive rise in the sea level. However, the IPCC estimates sea levels will rise only a foot the next century.
7. Global warming is causing alpine glaciers in Glacier National Park to recede. However, it is reported that local temperatures have been receding. It should be noted that the glaciers once covered the whole country that are now lost.
8. Antarctic glaciers are collapsing into the sea in dramatic display. However, it has been shown that his is a normal occurrence, which is due to the normal advance of the glacier. Also, the Antarctica has survived warm and cold events over the years.
9. Computer models have predicted global warming. However, it has been shown that computer models can’t reliably predict temperatures over the last 100 years, or even 20 years.
10. Out of 925 recent articles in peer-review scientific journals about global warming, there was no disagreement, 100% agreement among scientists. However, a Gallup Poll of North American climatologists showed that 83% didn’t believe the global warming theory. Today 4000 scientists have expressed their doubts about Global Warming.
11. Things were different in 1940-1970, when there was a global cooling. It was predicted that there was proof of a new Ice Age. However, today it is predicted for Global Warming.
12. Humanities CO2 contribution to the earths natural contribution is predicted to be about .5%. The uncertainty of the earth’s contribution is more than 20 times humanities contribution.

Global Warming Facts

These are some known documented scientific facts concerning “Global Warming”:

  1. The “Greenhouse Effect” is real and it helps to moderate the earth’s temperatures (15 degree C or 59 degree F average)-without the effect the earths temperature would be approximately –18 degree C or 0 degree F. Greenhouse gases (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane) allow sunlight to pass through the earth’s atmosphere and strike the earth and retain the radiant heat from escaping back into space.
  2. Global warming has been happening for a long time as the temperature of the earth has been increasing continuously since the ice age. The earth’s temperature has risen approximately 16 degrees F and the sea level raised approximately 300 ft. From a geological perspective global warming is a natural state.
  3. Global warming is caused primarily by the earth’s orbital eccentricities and variations in the Sun’s heat output to earth (sunspot activity, earths tilt and elliptical orbit around the sun, the earths wobble orbit). It is also due to heat retention from the “Greenhouse Effect” and solar reflectivity, and shifting of the land masses (continental drift).
  4. Over 90% of the greenhouse effect is the result of the water in the earth’s atmosphere (water vapor and clouds). The remaining portion comes from carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, and ozone.
  5. Temperatures have gone through two cycles of warming and cooling in the last 100 years. During 1900 to 1940 the temperatures were increasing and from 1940 to 1975 the temperatures were decreasing. Presently the temperatures are increasing.
  6. El Nino is caused primarily by differential warming of ocean currents in the Pacific Ocean relative to surrounding waters due to solar heating in equatorial regions-not general global solar heating.
  7. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal gas that trees and plants need to survive. Life (plant and animal) on earth requires carbon dioxide to survive.
  8. Orbiting weather satellites are able to record the most accurate measures of global warming. In the last 20 years of satellite measurements the recorded global temperatures have slightly decreased in average temperatures (carbon dioxide has increased 20% to 30%).
  9. UV absorption by ozone causes warming in the stratosphere.
  10. Greenhouse gases do not trap heat, but act as delaying the transfer of energy from Earth to space.
  11. Humans are responsible for about 3.4% of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere annually.
  12. Humans have been trying to measure the earth’s temperature since about 1880, and during this time the temperature has changed about 1.1 degrees F.
  13. A “National Journal Poll” shows consistent results of US Congressional members concerning global warming when asked, “Do you think it’s been proven beyond a reasonable doubt that the Earth is warming because of manmade problems?”- 95% Democrats agree, 84% Republicans disagree.
  14. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita leave surprising disaster of 320 million trees devastated. It will add significantly to the greenhouse gas buildup-ultimately putting as much carbon from drying vegetation into the air as the rest of the American forest takes out in a year of photosynthesis.